If you’ve got your eye on these next–year models, better get your order in early. These are the hardest to get.

As thousands of dealers nationwide await a decision from both Chrysler and General Motors on which lots to close, they’re also adjusting to what will likely be a 11–million–unit sales market this year. That’s down considerably from the 13.2 million units sold in 2008.

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Part of that adjustment? Managing how many vehicles they have on the lot at once. Leave too many Toyota (TM) RAV4’s sitting unsold on the lot and the market will adjust accordingly, rapidly depreciating values and resale prices. Provide too few, and dealers lose money on sales they could—and should—have made.

“They want to make sure that they’re making their bets, that things are turning and that their bets are right, because it’s very costly to them to hold too much inventory,” says Mike DiGiovanni, GM’s executive director of global market analysis. “They’ve been burned bad in the last two years.”

DiGiovanni says GM dealers are taking a cue from Asian brands like Toyota—thanks to some disciplined inventory management, the Prius and Lexus GX are in high demand and as a result have retained their residual values well. Those cars join entries from Europe—Audi’s Q5 and BMW’s X5—as some of the hardest–to–get cars on the market today.

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Behind the Numbers

To compile our list of the country’s most–popular 2010 vehicles, we used day–supply data provided by Ward’s Automotive Group, a publisher of industry trade news and data, as well as automaker–supplied data as a measure of dealer inventory levels. A low days’ supply and low retail turn rate—the amount of time a car spends on a dealer’s lot—means some dealerships may have sold out of a vehicle, have only a few of them on the lot, or have limited choices for style and trim. The scarcity is due to several factors, chief among them the popularity of a certain model and how disciplined dealers and automakers are with production and inventory management.

Vehicles with the lowest days’ supply made our initial list (Ward’s says the industry average is 63 days), which was pared down using J.D. Power and Associates’ average retail turn rate for each segment in November. The average retail turn rate for all vehicles is 48 days. It’s 32 days for Asian brands, 47 days for brands in Europe, and 63 days for domestics. For this list, we evaluated only vehicles from major automakers, not limited–production models that sometimes have years–long waiting lists for bespoke treatments and individualization.

Day supply rates depend on a number of different factors, says Jeff Schuster, the executive director of automotive intelligence for J.D. Power and Associates. One big determinant is the number of trim levels available for any given vehicle. Trucks, for instance, with their myriad of bed–length, payload and transmission options, require dealers to stock more of them, in order to be able to cater to consumers with varying tastes in trucks. That is also one reason why domestics like Ford and GM tend to have higher overall day supply rates: 4 of 20 of their 2010 model–year line comprises trucks, while only one out of 18 vehicles at Honda (HMC) (the $28,450 Ridgeline) are pickup trucks.

“It could also mean that because you’re stocking more variety, you may have some that aren’t hot sellers right now or aren’t meeting the needs of the consumers in your general area, and those will then sit on the lot a lot longer, which affects the days–to–turn rate,” Schuster says.

Asian brands also have shorter rates because they’re imports—cars like the $16,550 Toyota Matrix could sit on a boat for weeks until they’re needed on dealer lots.

Hot Ticket Items

The $56,300 BMW X6 and $21,500 Toyota RAV4 are two of the most elusive models of the moment. They’re hot too. The X6’s unique “sport–coupe” look and car–like handling have won it converts from larger crossovers. No wonder: The X6 35i xDrive uses a twin–turbo, V6 engine to get 300 horsepower and a 0–60 time of 6.3 seconds.

Toyota’s RAV4 is popular in part because of its practicality—it has the space of a small SUV and respectable fuel economy (22 miles per gallon in the city and 28 mpg on the highway). Luxury appointments like halogen headlamps, optional hill–start and –descent control, and power side mirrors, not to mention exemplary reliability reviews in Consumer Reports, make it a viable choice for drivers looking for a strong all–around car.

Wait times for getting an in–demand vehicle vary widely. Sometimes dealers can swap a car with another lot, literally producing the desired model overnight. If there is a waiting list for something like the Prius (there have been in past years, but not currently), the delay could take months, says Wade Hoyt, a spokesman for Toyota. And a special order for an out–of–stock combination of options or colors could take six weeks if the car is shipped from a U.S. factory or several months if it’s shipped all the way from Japan.

Next year, at least, expect to see much the same availability for the models on our list—although there may be some hope of getting into the likes of a BMW X3 sooner rather than later. Joe Greenwell, a researcher for Ward’s Automotive Group, says it’s difficult to accurately forecast what to expect—but Cash for Clunkers pulled ahead some demand that would have otherwise panned out this spring, creating a larger lot–supply of some vehicles than would have otherwise existed.

“It’s hard to tell, because it depends on how the economy goes, but if anything supply rates will stay the same or go up a little, I would think,” he says.

All the same, place your orders now.

1. Toyota Matrix

November Day Supply: 13

Average Retail Turn Rate: 31.5

MSRP: $16,550

2. Audi Q5

November Day Supply: 14

Average Retail Turn Rate: 51

MSRP: $37,350

3. BMW X6 (tie)

November Day Supply: 21

Average Retail Turn Rate: 51

MSRP: $56,300

4. BMW X5 (tie)

November Day Supply: 21

Average Retail Turn Rate: 51

MSRP: $47,500

5. BMW X3 (tie)

November Day Supply: 21

Average Retail Turn Rate: 51

MSRP: $38,750

See the full list of the Most Popular 2010 Cars

Tipping can be tough in a recession. A recent Consumer Reports survey of 1,000 people found about one-quarter of Americans say they’ll tip less this holiday season than they did last year. Just 6 percent plan to tip more.

“Compared with the prior holiday season, fewer people are tipping a variety of service providers, and 26 percent expected to be providing less in tips,” says Tobie Stanger, senior money editor at Consumer Reports.

Some of that decline may come from consumers dropping services altogether, although the survey didn’t ask about that topic. “For instance, we don’t have a cleaning lady anymore — we feel terrible, we liked her, but we were trying to save money,” says Stanger.

Just two groups received a tip from the majority of respondents: 71 percent tipped cleaning workers (median gift, $50) and 56 tipped teachers (median gift, $20), although teachers were more likely to get a present of some kind.

“The cleaning person is in your house every week or every two weeks, it’s personal, you see that person often, and they’re typically not paid well, so there’s more of a concern about tipping when possible,” Stanger says. “Very few people tipped their garbage collector or mail carrier — those people don’t enter the house. There’s less of a personal relationship.”

Who Gets What?

Consumer Reports found average tips of $20 for hairdressers, garbage collectors and postal workers (who are limited by Postal Service rules to non-cash gifts worth less than $20 — and no alcohol). The survey found landscapers receive an average of $30; manicurists and barbers, $10; pet-care providers, $25; and newspaper carriers, $15. But in all these categories, less than one-third of people gave any kind of tip.

Tipping is also a regional phenomenon, with consumers in the Northeast and West Coast more likely to dole out rewards than those in the central and southern states. “In my neighborhood in New York, the school bus driver and school bus monitor both get tips; in my friends’ neighborhood in Colorado Springs, no one would think to do that,” says Stanger.

Carolyn Danckaert of the Center for a New American Dream, which advocates simplifying the holidays, says it’s better to go with a homemade gift for a family member to save money and maintain a cash tip for a service worker. “I wouldn’t look to tips as my first way to save money; reducing one’s consumption doesn’t necessarily mean eliminating or reducing monetary giving,” she says. “A teacher can more readily to adapt to a reduction in tips, but with people who might be more economically fragile it becomes a bigger need.”

For example, a babysitter, who typically works for an hourly wage with no benefits, might receive at least one week’s pay, all the way up to one month’s pay for a nanny who has been with the family for multiple years.

Many schools ask parents to contribute to a collective fund that is then distributed to teachers based on seniority. But there are always those parents who insist on an individual gift, says Leonard Green, a professor in the psychology department at Washington University in St. Louis, who has studied tipping.

“Overwhelmingly teachers do not rely on gifts and money, but neurotic parents are worried that if they don’t give a gift the teacher will take it out on little Billy,” says Green. “If she really is going to, you should worry more about whether you want that person teaching.”

Making It Count

Green suggests that gifts for teachers “can be changed into a real token of appreciation — homemade jams or cake or cookies,” he notes. “If a teacher has a certain interest you could get them a paperback novel or nonfiction book or a magazine subscription.”

Danny Kofke, a special needs teacher in Atlanta, says he most appreciates the thank you notes he’s received from parents. “It’s powerful. It solidifies what we do every day,” he says. “When I’m having a bad day sometimes I look back at those notes and remember, ‘this is why I’m a teacher and tomorrow will be a better day,’ and it keeps it all in perspective. This is my tenth year and I still remember a thank you note I got from my first year teaching.”

If parents do decide to give a monetary gift, Kofke recommends a gift card to a discount store such as Wal-Mart or Target. “We can get teachers supplies there. I get food items for the kids for snacks, and it can go a long way in filling up the classroom with stuff you need,” he says. Another idea: Give a career boost. Write an admiring letter about the teacher and send it to the principal.

For consumers in major cities like New York, the knotty dilemma is not what to give a teacher but what to tip the doorman. “It really does matter, because you need good service during the year,” says Green. “It’s not simply appreciation of past service but more so for the future. At certain places, the doormen really do have a lot of power, and you don’t want to get on their bad side.”

How much to tip a doorman depends on how many the building has, how often you interact with them, and the quality of service received. I once lived in a New York building that had two 24-hour entrances and at least a dozen doormen, so they each received $20 to $30. A gift of $50 might be more appropriate if only one person mans the door.

If you really don’t have the money, “try to sit down and write a lovely note about how you really appreciate person’s help, and you wish it could have been a larger tip because they deserve it, but it’s been a difficult time,” says Green. “The doorman’s not going to feel great getting less money, but that’s one way to prevent the doorman feeling he’s unappreciated or snubbed by you.”

Some co-ops and condos are moving toward collective gifts for building service workers.  “You have to be prepared for at least two things: Some people don’t like that because they want to give more to try to get better service,” says Green. “The other is the free rider, who says, ‘as long as the whole condo is giving the tip I don’t have to give.’ You’re not going to give a note that says ‘thanks from everybody except Mr. Billingsly in Apt. 2C.’”

To avoid free-loaders, Green suggests a peer-pressure technique he used for department socials: People who put money in the collection box for beer and snacks got a gold star. “That month we got so many more donations,” he recalls. “You could put gold stars on the doors of people who have given.”

If that doesn’t fly with the neighbors on Park Avenue, Green suggests sending a second reminder saying, “‘we’re sending this only to those who haven’t donated as we are still hopeful you might,’” he says. “Then it’s, ‘uh oh, we know who you are.’”

A convenient location, good schools, well-maintained homes and a modest inventory of properties for sale: These are the traditional cues that homeowners and buyers look for to assure that home values will hold up in a neighborhood.

But whether values sink or stick is now dependent on an “invisible” factor: the mortgage balances of homeowners in the area

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Approximately one-third of all mortgage holders have a loan balance that’s higher than the current value of their home, according to a recent government report on federal anti-foreclosure programs.

Homeowners in this unfortunate position are dubbed “underwater” borrowers.

As their tide of debt rises above what they could get from selling, these owners have less incentive to care for their properties, which depresses area prices further, finds the Congressional Oversight Panel’s report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. And if they experience financial distress, underwater owners are more likely to lose the property to foreclosure, with the resulting empty homes adversely impacting prices up and down the block.

Spotting signs of home abuse

Sometimes it’s evident that mortgage balances are sabotaging neighborhood values.

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For example, John Sullivan, president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents, says he’s encountered relatively new subdivisions that normally would still look fresh, with finishing touches being added, like additional landscaping.

Instead, lawns are scraggly, windows are dirty and other signs of home abuse abound.

Still, with one-third of all borrowers underwater, not all are found in new developments that already exhibit telltale signs of owners’ mortgage misfortune.

In fact, says Khater, it’s not until mortgage debt falls about 20 percent below a home’s value that foreclosures start occurring with more frequency.

A matter of public record

Because neighborhoods cluttered with underwater owners are likely to see further value drops, Evan Feldman, an agent with ZipRealty in Wellington, Fla., says he tries to alert buyers to this threat: “I try to educate them as much as I can; I don’t want them saying later, ‘How could you not tell me this?’”

While it may seem that the size of a homeowner’s mortgage is strictly between the homeowner and the lender, mortgage data are public record. County recorders or county clerks record a lien for the amount of a mortgage each time a loan is made.

Some counties offer these records online to the public. Users can search using a borrower’s name, or by address or by securing personal identification numbers from other online tax records.

Although it may feel as if they’re prying into neighbors’ financial lives, homeowners worried about what’s happening to values in their neighborhood can use these data as another indicator of what’s ahead.

Online access is not available in all counties. Many still keep records at the courthouse the old-fashioned way, says Jacqueline Byers, director of research and outreach, National Association of Counties.

Remember, too, warns Byers, that mortgage balances recorded don’t reflect amounts that borrowers have paid down through monthly payments or prepayments.

Consumers in counties not providing online access may find it too bothersome to dig through paper records. However, real estate agents often have the ability to get the data online through services that mine public records and sell it the information to subscribing real estate businesses, says Khater, who notes that his own company has a subsidiary providing just such services.

Some words are red flags to insurers and using them could mean that your claim might be delayed or even denied.

1. “I Think …”

Never begin a statement regarding a claim with these words. If you aren’t sure, don’t guess. What you say could cause your claim to be delayed or denied, says attorney Vedica Puri. And if you’re wrong — say, you report driving at 30 miles per hour before an accident but police later prove you were going 50 — it could hurt your credibility.

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Particularly beware of speculating on blame or causation. For example, if you suggest that a water leak is due to a construction defect, you could give the insurer an out if that’s a policy exclusion.

Stick to the facts. Should the insurance rep ask you a question you can’t answer, simply say, “I don’t know.” If the person is taking a written or recorded statement, ask for a transcript to review for misstatements.

2. “I Got Whiplash”

Fraud costs auto insurers up to $6.8 billion a year, reports the Insurance Research Council. And suing for damages caused by whiplash is a fraudster favorite (”Oh, my neck!”). Merely mentioning the term is likely to get your claim flagged for further investigation, says Amy Danise of Insure.com.

Whiplash is a specific diagnosis. If a doctor says that you have it, then you should report it as such. Other wise, if you feel neck pain, just refer to it that way.

edmunds.com

3. “It’s an Experimental Treatment”

Truly experimental or investigational medical procedures are typically not eligible for health insurance coverage. So if a doctor tells you he wants to experiment with a treatment, don’t represent it using those words. “In medical terms it may not actually be experimental or investigational,” explains Danise. “If it’s proven effective, your doctor deems it medically necessary, and it’s not an exclusion, it should be covered.” Verify with your doctor that it meets the above litmus tests before going to the insurer.

4. “My Basement Flooded”

With homeowners insurance, “flood” is a red flag. “The word refers to an act of weather or an overflow from a nearby body of water,” says Danise. “And a standard homeowners policy doesn’t cover it. You’d need flood insurance.”

So don’t use the f-word if your basement is knee-deep in water because of a burst pipe. Damages from such an incident should be covered by a homeowners policy. But calling it a “flood” could muddy the waters, so to speak.

5. “Just Send Me a Check”

When filing a home or auto claim, don’t emphasize that you’re just looking for the cash.

“If you were to say, ‘I don’t care about the roof leak, I just need the money,’ that admission could slow things to a halt,” says Puri. Technically, you’re supposed to use the payout to make the repair for which you filed. While it’s true that most insurance companies aren’t going to check up on you, you’ll certainly raise the fraud unit’s suspicions if you imply that you won’t. And then you might lose out on the money altogether.

When it comes to retirement planning, it’s important to measure risk. But it’s just as important not to mismeasure it. Unfortunately, that’s what most Americans and financial-services firms do today. They tend to focus on the probability of risk and less, if at all, on the magnitude of the risk. The net result is that many retirees and retirement savers now have investment portfolios that are far too aggressive.

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Or so says Richard Fullmer of Russell Investments, author of a just-published white paper “Mismeasurement of Risk in Financial Planning.”

To get a sense of why that’s so requires a brief history lesson. For many years, Americans used something called deterministic models to calculate whether their portfolio would last their lifetime, according to Fullmer. With that model, you plugged in a desired rate of return on your portfolio along with some projected rate of inflation and — voila — you learned how long your portfolio would last. But there are a few problems with that model, according to Fullm

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First, it’s quite possible that you don’t know what rates of return or inflation are reasonable to assume. Second, Fullmer said, given “the inherent nature of the capital markets,” even if you choose reasonable values, the future could turn out quite differently. And third, the success or failure of the financial plan is subject to something Fullmer calls “path dependency.” “Even if the capital markets did deliver the assumed average rate of return over the planning period, the plan could still fail if the returns came about unevenly rather than smoothly,” he wrote.

And, boy, didn’t we learn that the hard way in 2008.

Say Hello to Probability

Enter Monte Carlo simulations. To address shortcomings with deterministic models, firms in the financial-services industry started to use probabilistic models, and most typically they used a technique called Monte Carlo simulation. A Monte Carlo simulation “projects out numerous (hundreds or thousands) potential paths that could unfold over time for variables such as portfolio returns and inflation,” Fullmer wrote. “Dividing the number of paths under which the plan fails by the total number of paths simulated gives the probability of failure.” This was a significant improvement that could address all three of the problems with deterministic models.

Now, simulation models are wonderful tools if used properly. “Unfortunately, that is not always the case,” Fullmer wrote. Consider: You use such models to figure out a suitable savings rate, retirement date, spending budget, investment strategy, and so on. But doing so typically requires “an understanding of an investor’s risk tolerance as well as the risk of ruin inherent in an investor’s financial plan.”

Most tools don’t do that, however. Most financial-planning tools define risk as the probability that the plan may fail — in other words that you will run out of money, Fullmer wrote. “The conventional guidance is that investors should plan using a low — 5% to 10% — probability of failure, although the suitable probability threshold for any particular individual will depend on his or her risk tolerance,” he wrote.

“The problem with this definition and treatment is that the probability of failure is not a complete measure of risk. Just as not measuring risk can be dangerous, so too can mismeasuring it.”

To Fullmer, risk is really the probability of an event occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of it occurring. An event with a high probability and a low magnitude may have the same exposure to risk as an event with low probability and high magnitude. Consider his example: Let’s say the fine for a speeding ticket is $100 when the driver’s speed is less than 15 miles per hour over the speeding limit and $1,000 when the driver’s speed is more than 15 miles over the limit. Now say you are driving on a road where the posted speed limit is 50 miles per hour. “Clearly, the risk to you of driving 67 miles per hour on this road is much greater than the risk of driving 63 miles an hour,” he wrote. “This is true even if the probability of getting caught is exactly the same.”

What does this have to do with the topic of financial planning? Simply this: “Models that measure only the probability of failure ignore one side of the risk equation completely.”

Fullmer isn’t suggesting that Monte Carlo be scrapped. Simulation models actually lend themselves very well to proper risk measurement but only if they measure both the probability of failure and the magnitude of the failure cases that occur. Right now, however, the models use this calculation: The magnitude is the total amount of desired spending and bequeathing (how much money is left to heirs and others after you die) that does not occur because the portfolio ran out of money — often referred to as “shortfall.” In other words, the existing tools use this model: Shortfall risk equals probability of shortfall.

A better risk measure, however, would be this: Shortfall risk equals probability of shortfall times the magnitude of shortfall. To be fair, probability statistics may be good enough as a quick check on whether a particular spending plan is reasonable, Fullmer wrote. But they are “inadequate when comes to actual decision making.”

In fact, by focusing solely on the “probability component of risk,” he says you may wind up with a portfolio that’s too aggressive, that is too heavily weighted in stocks. That’s a direct result of ignoring the magnitude of the failure.

Said Fullmer: “Getting the risk measure correct is vitally important.”

How does one go about doing that? Unfortunately, that’s no easy task. Most planning tools today don’t boast about whether they measure risk completely. Instead, Fullmer says you have to approach these tools with a “buyer beware” frame of mind. If you use a Monte Carlo simulation tool and it tells you that you have a 90% chance of success and then recommends a portfolio, beware. If on the other hand, the tool suggests that you have a 20% chance of failure, that you would run out of money in year 10, and then presents a portfolio that minimizes the severity of it not working, well, that tool might be worth using.

To be sure, the next generation of financial-planning and retirement-income tools might incorporate magnitude into the risk equation. For now, however, consider yourself warned: Use these tools at your own risk.

Copyrighted, MarketWatch. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of MarketWatch content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of MarketWatch. MarketWatch shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

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Gift cards have plenty of benefits — they’re convenient, they’re never the wrong color and they fit perfectly inside an envelope. But they do have one major drawback: Recipients know exactly how much you spent on them.

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Or do they?

Though the fact is rarely advertised, gift cards can be bought for less than they’re worth. You might be able to buy a gift card for half price — or even less — and your recipient will be none the wiser. (Unless, of course, that recipient is you.)

If you know how and where to shop, sometimes you can get a lot more than you pay for. Here’s how:

1. Auction sites. Auction sites such as eBay often offer cards for less than full price — but you’ll need to do some research to make sure the card is legit. Be sure to check the seller’s ratings and ask about any expiration date or nonusage fees that might apply. “If you can get at least a 30 percent discount on the card, I think it’s worth it to go through those steps,” says Fatima Mehdikarimi, a shopping and finance expert who runs ShoppingQueen.com.

2. Gift-card specific sites. Swapagift.com and Certificateswap.com are niche sites that cater to people looking to buy, sell and trade their gift cards. “Their discounts aren’t usually quite as good as the ones on eBay, but they have an extra layer of protection,” says Mehdikarimi. At these sites (unlike a typical auction site), the gift card’s value is secured with the seller’s credit card, and some sites will guarantee your purchase up to a certain amount. You’ll tend to find a flood of new cards — and likely bigger bargains — after holidays such as Christmas, Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day.

3. Bing’s shopping portal. In a bid to lure users away from Google, new-search-engine-on-the-block Bing.com offers cash-back rewards to registered users for many purchases through its shopping site. “They’re one of the most lucrative [sites] on getting cash back,” notes Brian Preston, host of the Money Guy podcast and partner at Preston & Cleveland Wealth Management. To find out if you can score a deal, head to Bing, click on “Shopping” and enter the name of the gift card you’re searching for. The site will list all the cards available, prices and cash back rewards, which can surpass 10 percent. Recent deals have included 6 percent cash back on Gap and Banana Republic cards, and 10 percent cash back on iTunes cards.

4. Holiday bonuses. During the holiday season, local restaurants will look to get on your shopping list by offering extra on a gift card to sweeten the deal — an extra $25 on a $100 card, for example. If you’re looking for a deal on an upscale salon or spa, Mother’s Day and Valentine’s Day are two holidays where you’ll be more likely to get more bang for your buck. A grand opening banner above a locally owned store is also a good sign, says Shakira Brown, a shopping expert who runs the site retailsecrets.net. “In the service industry, you’ll see a lot of gift card specials where you can get 20 percent to 50 percent off the face value,” she says.

5. Warehouse and club stores. Membership really does have its privileges. Stores like Costco and Sam’s Club offer more than just 20-gallon vats of peanut butter — they offer gift cards well below retail price. At Costco, members can pick up $90 in iTunes gift cards for $75 or $100 in Wolfgang Puck gift cards for $80.

6. Bulk buys. Do you plan to be giving the same $50 bookstore gift cards to all your friends and family for years to come? A large volume order might help you save some cash — as long as you’re willing to shell out quite a bit upfront. At Dave and Buster’s, for example, discounts kick in at $500, while you’ll have to spend at least $10,000 to rack up any savings at Best Buy. To pursue this option, get in touch with the corporate sales department of a company and ask about volume discounts.

7. Grocery grabs. You can swing by a clothing store to buy a gift card, but you might also be able to pick up the same card from your local grocery store. You’ll pay the same amount upfront, but if you have a rewards credit card that pays you back 5 percent for purchases made at a grocery store, the best option is clear.

8. Local media sites. Local television stations, newspapers, radio stations and even sports teams often strike deals to offer half-price gift cards (or two for the price of one) to nearby restaurants, hotels, spas and salons. If you don’t hear them advertised, head to the media outlet’s Web site and search for “half price restaurants” or “dining deals.”

9. Specialized sites. Sites such as Restaurant.com and Citydeals.com offer gift certificates at steeply discounted prices or throw in “extra value” credits — usually about 10 percent of the total — for the retailer. You’ll see offers for car rentals, chain and local restaurants, and movie theaters. Be sure to check restrictions before you buy. At Restaurant.com, for example, the gift certificates may require a minimum purchase and tack automatic gratuities onto the bill.

10. Twitter or Facebook. Social networking site Twitter proves that it only takes 140 characters to snare a deal. Start following Twitterers in your city, such as HalfpriceSD (San Diego) or become a Facebook fan of a deal-making organization like Half Price Chicago to get the inside scoop on where to get gift cards for less.

11. Miles and points. Those frequent flier miles that are languishing in your account can often be redeemed for gift cards for movies, clothing and other retailers’ products. While you may be able to get cash back for points you’ve earned on your credit card, you may be able to get a gift card worth more than the money. “If you’re someone who pays their bill off every month, these are freebies,” says Brown. “Take advantage of them.”

12. Your credit card company’s shopping site. Credit card companies are eager to have you buy through their shopping portals, such as Citi’s Bonus Cash Center and ShopDiscover. You may pay full price for a gift card, but you’ll earn a few percentage points in cash back that’s credited to your account — and the selection is often fantastic. “In many cases, the gift cards that are available are like a who’s who of retailers,” says Preston. At Citi’s site, for example, you can snare cards with cash back offers from such stores as Target, Barnes and Noble, Sears and Lowe’s.

13. Go in as a group. Maybe you want to get the boss a gift card for the holidays, but you don’t want to foot the entire bill. Options like Best Buy’s “Pitch in” program and Lolligift.com allow you to set up a virtual bank account to collect money from coworkers, pals, family or anyone else to collect the required cash for a pooled gift — no envelopes or badgering required.

Grade yours on a 10-point scale.

Nobody’s perfect. When it comes to our financial lives, we’ve all done things we later regretted — whether it’s getting slapped with a $3 fee for using an out-of-network ATM or going on a Las Vegas bender and losing the house on an overly aggressive poker bet.

The key is to understand the scale of the transgression. With credit card blunders, that’s no easy task — is it worse to take a cash advance or to pay a bill a day or two late? Experts graded a range of credit card mistakes on a scale from 1 (losing a few bucks to a cash machine) to 10 (losing the house). Find out which worry the pros most — and which may (almost) get a free pass.

More from CreditCards.com: • Guru Goofs: 7 Experts Confess Biggest Mistakes • 10 Flu-Fighting Credit Card Tips • Getting a Fancy Phone? Mind Your Credit Score

Paying Late
How bad is it? 6
The details: Credit card companies are notoriously prickly about late payments — even a payment that’s late by a few minutes can pile up fees, interest charges and other penalties. Depending on how late the payment is, your card issuer may also report the problem to any of the credit bureaus, which can wreak havoc on your credit score. The good news, says Stacy Francis, president of Francis Financial, is that the error may be reversible. “You do have the option of giving the credit card company a call and asking them not to report it,” she says. “If you’ve generally been an on-time payer, they may waive the fees and not report it.”

Paying Only the Minimum on Your Card
How bad is it? 4
The details: Credit card companies love it when you pay off your debt slowly, but you should loathe it. It won’t necessarily affect your credit score, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good practice. Sending in only the minimum payment “is definitely going to keep you in debt longer, and you’re going to pay a heck of a lot more in interest,” says Francis. “You may be paying twice as much — or more — as you would by paying in cash.”

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Buying On a Card Just For Rewards
How bad is it? 1
The details: If you’re paying off your balance on time and in full, using your cards to grab extra rewards isn’t necessarily a bad plan, says Gail Cunningham, spokeswoman for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. “You can win the rewards card game if you know how to play,” she says. “But you do have to know yourself.” Because most people spend more when they’re paying with plastic than with cash, be cautious and recognize when you’re buying something only because plastic makes the purchase painless.

Missing a Payment
How bad is it? 9
The details: Not only are you going to be slammed with fees, interest charges and other penalties when you miss a payment, but you’ll likely see a rise in your interest rates. If that weren’t bad enough, you’ll also have to contend with a significant hit to your credit report — about 35 percent of your credit score is based on your ability to pay bills on time. As a result, you’ll pay more when you try to get a loan. “Missing a payment has both immediate and long-term consequences,” says Clarky Davis, Care One Debt Relief’s Debt Diva. “You may be dealing with the fallout for years.”

Having Too Many Cards
How bad is it? 6
The details: If you’re the type to apply for a card just so you can grab a discount on clothes or other merchandise, you likely have a huge stack of cards in your purse or wallet. You’re probably not getting enough value from the card to make it worth the high interest rates or additional complications from additional bills and junk cluttering your mailbox — and you’re increasing the likelihood that a payment slips through the cracks or that you’ll be a victim of identity theft. “There’s rarely a good reason to get a new card if you’ve already got a general-purpose card, a rewards card and a low interest card,” says Cunningham.

Maxing Out a Card
How bad is it? 7
The details: Maxing out a card can have a serious impact on your credit score, since about 30 percent of your score is based on “credit utilization” — the amount of credit you’ve used relative to the amount you have available. More important, says Davis, is the fact that it likely signifies a distressing trend in your personal finances. “Maxing out a card may not have an immediate financial pull, but it’s a sign that you’re not budgeting or spending your money wisely,” she says. “It means you don’t have enough saved up to cover unexpected expenses.”

Playing the Balance Transfer Game
How bad is it? 5
The details: Moving your debt from a high-interest card to a low-interest card with a balance transfer isn’t as smart a move as you think, says Francis. “About 15 percent of your credit score is affected by your recent credit applications,” she notes. Pile up a few transfers and your score will take a hit. “Credit bureaus don’t (differentiate) that these cards are for the same [debt], they just see it as you getting pre-approved for more and more credit.” Add in the fees that generally accompany balance transfers and you’re not gaming the system — you’re getting hammered by it.

Debt Settlement Plans
How bad is it? 9.5
The details: If you’re overwhelmed by debt, negotiating down your balance with the credit card company (also called debt settlement) sometimes helps you pay pennies on the dollar on your debt — but you’ll pay a steep price. First, there’s the tax hit you’ll take for the amount of debt that’s forgiven — it will count as income during that tax year. And your credit score will be decimated, so don’t expect you’ll be able to take out a loan soon after consolidation. Next to bankruptcy, debt settlement “is the most negative thing you can do to your credit score,” says Francis.

Getting a Cash Advance?
How bad is it? 8
The details: It may feel like free money, but the truth is that it’s anything but: You’ll likely have a fee associated with the advance, and you’ll likely pay a higher interest rate than you would by using the card associated with it. “You also have no grace period,” notes Cunningham. “You’ll start accruing interest from the moment you get the money.” While these are all dangerous attributes in and of themselves, they’re not the worst part, says Cunningham. “When you start using cash advances, you have to understand why you’re using them as they’re likely symptomatic of a deep financial problem.”

Using a Card in a Pinch
How bad is it? 2
The details: If the fridge went on the fritz or the furnace conked out in mid-January, you might not have the means to fund its immediate replacement. Putting the bill on a credit card — and paying it off quickly over the course of a few months — is a pretty solid option, says Cunningham. “You don’t want something like that to become standard operating procedure,” says Cunningham. “But it’s OK to have a balance on a card for a few months when you’re going through a rough patch in your financial life. Just make sure it’s on a card without an annual fee or with a very low annual fee.”